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@one_snowball
Jun 27, 2026, 06:06 AM
ARX Token In-Depth Analysis: Is It Worth Investing In The Future?
Here is the translation:
I finished writing the analysis on ARX a couple of days ago, and some fans asked me: what about the current price? When can we buy in? Previously, I mainly discussed the ecological niche and background, but today I'll analyze Arcium from the token's perspective and help you understand whether it's worth buying.
This is a regular perspective, but it can still help you see the token's situation for at least the next three months. When you see a token's future, you naturally know whether to participate and how much to invest.
First, let's talk about the token structure. The total supply is 1 billion, and the initial circulating supply is around 200 million. The team, investors, and validators are all locked in for a year. In other words, within a year after TGE, the market will mainly be playing with the initial circulating supply, and there won't be much new selling pressure entering the market.
It's essential to connect this to the overall market. Although the second half of the year is uncertain, it still gives ARX enough time to grow. Of course, if the overall market is strong, ARX's chances of growing will increase significantly.
Currently, the price is around $0.24. I checked the Coinlist public offering price, which was $0.20, and users who participated in the public offering are making a small profit. Without significant selling pressure, this small correction can be seen as a normal fluctuation and a continuation of the previous selling pressure from airdrop and public offering users, which doesn't constitute long-term pressure.
Next, let's talk about token empowerment. This refers to the usage and consumption scenarios of the token within the overall framework. I'll mainly discuss Hyperliquid (because the expected price increase of HYPE tokens is largely due to the expected handover of transaction fees and destruction ratio).
Take a look at this chart, and we'll break down the data step by step. 1. Network fees: I'll briefly discuss the disclosed data. Previously, Arcium completed over 500,000 application stages. Currently, the total number of calculations is close to 1.7 million, with over 60 confidential computing programs and execution environments deployed, and the entire confidential network has generated over 6 million transactions on Solana (data from the official blockchain browser).
These data represent the project's high recognition and current stage of "just starting" to "accelerating forward". I'll focus on observing the situation over the next 6 months to 1 year, and the faster the growth, the better.
2. Node staking situation: Currently, there are mainly 14 nodes. I checked, and initially, they used a directed invitation system, which will be open to nodes in the future. There should be explosive growth.
The core concern is the number of nodes and staking data that the project will disclose in the future.
3. Delegation scheduling weight is mainly reflected in the fact that the more delegations, the more likely nodes are to get more scheduling opportunities, and thus more computing fees.
I'm focusing on one point: will the main flow of tokens in the future be here, and will most of the circulating chips be incentivized to delegate to high-performance "super node clusters" to earn network transaction fees? If this can be achieved, it will greatly dilute the selling pressure in the secondary market.
Next, let's talk about the valuation framework. Currently, it's more suitable to use "narrative fulfillment rate" rather than traditional revenue multiples to value ARX.
The reason is simple: Arcium's DeCC/confidential computing track is still in its early stages, and network fees, node income, and application-side payment willingness haven't formed mature, continuous, and comparable data.
However, from Solana's official support, financing background, and the situation mentioned earlier, it represents the top players and companies in the industry looking good on this narrative.
Look to the future, not the current data performance. (When everyone saw BTC in 09, they wouldn't have thought it would grow to this scale.)
When everyone focused on AI storage narratives last year, they wouldn't have thought this year's expectations could be so high.
The best time to participate is when the narrative is emerging, not when it's already popular.
Therefore, the current valuation of ARX in the secondary market comes from three dimensions:
1. I think it's Solana's ecological premium, as its investors and participants include Solana's core figures and institutions. The project naturally has Solana's native infrastructure attributes. As long as Solana's DeFi, AI, payment, RWA, and institutional applications continue to expand, the market will give Arcium a certain ecological option value.
2. From the DeCC/confidential computing narrative premium: confidential computing is a long-term development direction. Public chains need to undertake institutional, AI, data market, and private DeFi, which requires some form of encrypted computing infrastructure.
Arcium is at the intersection of this narrative: Solana's performance, confidential computing, AI data, and DeFi order flow protection.
I'll use a subjective sentence: the mainstream narrative of the future industry cannot be separated from confidential computing.
3. Then there's the real usage volume discount, which currently cannot be given an accurate result. The project previously disclosed that Arcium has processed over 1.6 million confidential computations, and ZINC and other ecological applications have gained attention in Solana's revenue rankings.
Everyone can continue to pay attention to whether these calculations bring sustainable income, whether they form protocol fees, and whether they require users or nodes to hold/stake ARX in the long term.
Therefore, the current valuation logic can be summarized as: short-term looks at the circulating supply and trading sentiment, mid-term looks at unlocking and ecological applications, and long-term looks at network fees and token value capture.
Personally, I think (a bit subjective, I already have a positive attitude): although the overall market is uncertain, so it's hard to determine a large position to buy in.
However, at this position, it's already possible to intervene as the first point of the Coinlist public offering.
If everyone really can't understand, there's only one point: projects that have been listed on Upbit, Coinbase, and will definitely be listed on Binance in the future, definitely won't be bad.
The three majors definitely understand.
I suggest strictly following the staged buying strategy, building positions in batches, and looking at the long-term 1U, which will definitely be implemented.





