交易禅师

It seems like the last time was Lehman Brothers... IBM's market value evaporated by a quarter in one day... The reason is the Q2 earnings warning, with software and infrastructure businesses missing the mark entirely. On the same day, Salesforce fell 3%, Microsoft fell 1.8%, and the entire software sector was dragged down. On the same day, JPMorgan Chase delivered its strongest earnings report ever. Although semiconductors are in a correction, the fundamentals of Micron and TSMC haven't changed a bit. NVIDIA's Forward PE has been compressed to 19 times, the lowest since 2015. Not all ships will rise with the tide in the AI era. Some ships are rising, while others are running aground - IBM is one of the latter. AI money is flowing accurately along the industry chain, not like scattering pepper. NVIDIA sells GPUs, with orders lined up until next year. Micron sells HBM, with 16 five-year fixed-price contracts in hand. TSMC manufactures advanced processes, with capacity utilization at full capacity. These companies are benefiting from AI's real and quantifiable demand. What about IBM? Its AI story is 'we're also doing AI,' but the financial report tells you that customers haven't bought more software and servers because of this story. Concepts haven't turned into orders, and narratives haven't turned into revenue. The standard for stock selection in the second half of the year is simple: don't ask if a company has an AI story, ask what percentage of its AI revenue is, what the growth rate is, and how long the order visibility is.