交易禅师

Many people aren't bad at investing, but they mistake prediction for investing. Over the years, the most frequently asked questions have been almost the same. Can I still buy Nvidia? Is CoreWeave too expensive? Has Hynix reached its peak? Which robotics company should I buy now? At first, I would carefully analyze valuations, financial reports, and industry data. Later, I realized that these questions were all asking the same thing: who will be the last winner. However, the market is best at constantly changing winners. Last year it was Nvidia, then Hynix, followed by CoreWeave, optical modules, power, and robotics. Funds are always looking for new stories, and public opinion is always creating new stars. Many people think they lose money because they can't find the stock that rises the fastest. The real problem is not that they're heading in the wrong direction, but that they're always guessing who will be the next winner. The more I invest in the US stock market, the more I feel that the biggest misconception ordinary people have is mistaking prediction for investment capability. They're always trying to find the lowest point, the highest point, and the next ten-fold stock. It seems that the more accurate the prediction, the closer they are to success. However, prediction itself is the most costly thing. As long as you're buying individual stocks, it means you have to keep answering the same question: is this company still the best? Will the next financial report be lower than expected? Will a stronger competitor suddenly emerge in the industry? A lot of people's time and emotions are consumed this way. So, I've come to understand why index investing has always existed and is increasingly recognized. It doesn't solve the problem of returns, but rather the problem of decision-making. You don't need to prove yourself right every day by choosing the right company. You only need to judge a more important question: which directions are worth participating in for the next five to ten years. If you believe AI will continue to develop, then what's truly worth investing in isn't a particular company, but the entire industry chain. Recently, I saw that Bitget Wallet launched the Reserve Protocol's DTF Token, which I think is this kind of thinking. It doesn't let users keep guessing winners, but instead breaks down AI into several directly investable tracks. For example, BUILDOUT corresponds to AI hardware, PHOTON corresponds to the data center optoelectronic industry chain, NEOCLOUD focuses on GPU cloud and computing power operators, POWER corresponds to energy infrastructure, and ROBOTS covers robotics and automation. The greatest significance of this approach isn't making investment more exciting, but making it simpler. For on-chain users, there's no need to open a US stock account. Through the USDT in their wallet, they can directly gain exposure to the corresponding track index. When to trade is up to them, not determined by the exchange's opening time. By the way, Bitget Wallet is currently doing a DTF activity. From July 9th, 21:00 to July 23rd, 21:00 (UTC+8), trading $PHOTON, $BUILDOUT, $ROBOTS, $POWER, or $NEOCLOUD DTF, with a cumulative transaction volume exceeding $100, can participate in the reward. The highest individual reward is $2,000. If you're already paying attention to AI, this might be a good opportunity. Rather than spending more time guessing which company will be the next Nvidia, I'd rather spend my time judging which directions are worth holding onto for the next ten years.