交易禅师

Recently, Micron's stock price plummeted 33%, catching many investors off guard. However, three months ago, I predicted this trend and shared my views on social media. As a result, I was ridiculed by some people. But now, it seems my judgment was correct. So, how did I predict Micron's trend in advance? Actually, it wasn't based on any profound theories, just some basic market rules and understanding of human nature. First, Micron's stock price had already risen 800% in the past year, which was an extremely high increase. According to market physics, the selling pressure from profit-taking is unavoidable, especially in cyclical stocks. Secondly, I noticed that a bunch of 2x leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung and SK Hynix were recently approved in Korea. The characteristic of leveraged funds is that they boost when rising and stomp when falling. The day I saw the explosive growth of Korean leveraged ETFs, I knew that a collapse was inevitable at some point, as this structural vulnerability would only need a spark. Thirdly, when everyone is talking about the same story, I know that the narrative has been fully priced in. The market won't continue to pay a premium for something that has become a consensus. Now that it has fallen 33%, the comments section has quieted down, and those who said I 'understood nothing' have disappeared. However, I also want to say a fair word: I don't think the long-term logic of storage is problematic, AI's demand for storage is real, and the supply shortage is also real. Micron's contracts and orders are in place. What I was bearish on was the pricing at $1200, not storage itself. A good company can still lose money if bought at the wrong price. Is $806 a good price to buy now? I don't know, maybe it still needs some time to grind. The IPO of China's CXMT is on July 27, and this negative factor has not yet landed. ASML and TSMC's earnings reports showed revenue exceeding expectations, but margin pressure is starting to emerge, and market sentiment is still digesting. I won't shout 'buy' at this position, just like I wouldn't shout 'buy' at $1200. I'm just the guy who said 'clear your positions' at $1200 and got ridiculed for three weeks. Now you know, sometimes the most criticized view is the correct one.