交易禅师

They were wrong. Those who shouted 'Storage is done, run for your life' were wrong, TSMC's profit +77%, ASML twice raised its guidance, Micron's gross margin reached a new high, and SK Hynix's chairman said production capacity will double, but customers say it's not enough. Performance has never been better. Those who shouted 'Golden pit, hurry up and buy the dip' were also wrong, Micron fell from $1255 to $900, SK Hynix rose 13% on its first day of listing and then fell for three consecutive days, losing 20%, the Korean leveraged ETF stampede is not over yet, and China's Changxin Storage's $8.5 billion IPO has not yet landed, Kioxia was just fined $2.29 billion. The combination of the best fundamentals in history and the worst holding structure in history will result in what? Wild swings. The price rises 5% today, and you think it's the bottom, but it falls 7% tomorrow, and you think it's going to collapse. The next day, it rises 6% again, and you're even more confused. This kind of market will continue until one of two things happens - either the holding structure is cleared (those who should leave have left), or the fundamentals really show a crack (a quarterly earnings miss). Currently, there is no sign that the fundamentals are deteriorating. But the clearing of holdings may still take time. The bubble in Korean leveraged ETFs has not been completely squeezed out, the arbitrage pressure between SK Hynix's ADR and Korean stocks is still there, and Changxin Storage's IPO is still pending. Keep your powder dry, and buy in batches. Where to buy when it falls? Don't guess the bottom. Run when you see the fundamentals start to deteriorate. Before that, add a little to your position every time it falls 10%, using the money that won't make you lose your mind even if you lose 50%. The bulls and bears are arguing back and forth, but they're all doing the same thing - trying to find a certain answer. But the market can't give you certainty during the clearing phase. The only advice is - don't go all-in, don't clear your position, stay in the game, and control your position. Not exciting enough? Yes, survival is never exciting.