交易禅师

Google's recent earnings report was eye-catching, but most people missed the most important detail. Everyone is discussing 'Google's free cash flow turned negative', 'is $20.5 billion in capital expenditures too crazy?', and 'does AI have any returns?' But the real focus should be on Google Cloud's backlog of orders, a staggering $5.14 trillion! This is an amazing number that can sustain Google's development for more than five years. More importantly, these orders are not 'intentions' or 'framework agreements', but contracts signed by customers waiting to be delivered. Why did no one notice this number? Because the five words 'free cash flow turned negative' were too scary, scaring everyone into focusing only on the cost side and completely ignoring the demand side. Why did Google dare to increase its capital expenditures to $20.5 billion? Because it has $5.14 trillion in Cloud orders in hand, which is not a gamble, but rather using signed orders to build corresponding production capacity. What will this $5.14 trillion in backlog orders become? It will become the continuous procurement of servers, GPUs, storage chips, optical modules, and power infrastructure investment over the next five years. Every dollar of Cloud orders has several cents of storage, several cents of optical modules, and several cents of nuclear power plant electricity behind it. Google's 'losses' are good news for the industry chain. Its losses are not because the business is not doing well, but because demand is too strong and it is crazy to build production capacity. This kind of loss is what the upstream industry chain dreams of seeing. The storage price rose by 14% the day before yesterday, and Google's $5.14 trillion in backlog orders tells you that 14% may just be the beginning.