交易禅师

Changxin will definitely go this way. The valuation is indeed cheap, with a revenue of 110-120 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, up 612% year-on-year, and a net profit of 50-57 billion yuan, up 2544% year-on-year. As the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, its market share of 7.67% is still rising. Overseas giants have a valuation of nearly $1 trillion, while Changxin's valuation of 300 billion yuan is not even a fraction of that. From a valuation perspective, it is indeed undervalued in the storage supercycle. But there are two things that are unclear, and being cheap doesn't mean it can't lose money. First, the shareholder structure. Changxin has 9.43 million new shareholders, with 7.7 million winning tickets, and extremely dispersed retail investors. Dispersed shareholders mean no main force is in control, and when you sell, I sell, there is natural downward pressure. In contrast, SpaceX has a large proportion of institutional investors at the opening, and institutions don't easily cut their holdings, so SpaceX soared after listing. Changxin has a high proportion of retail investors, and after the first day's surge, it will likely experience a round of intense churn. Second, the circulating market capitalization and unlocking. Changxin's circulating market capitalization on the first day is only 6.73%, with no limit on the rise or fall in the first five days. A low circulating market capitalization sounds like a good thing, but it's also a double-edged sword. Low liquidity means high costs for funds to enter and exit, and once the unlocking tide comes, the selling pressure will be highly concentrated. Take SMIC International as a reference. In 2020, it opened with a market capitalization of 100 billion yuan and a PE ratio of over 100 times, which wasn't expensive. After listing, it rose slightly for a few days, then fell all the way. Why? It was because the shareholder structure and unlocking rhythm were problematic, and even a good company couldn't withstand it. Changxin is a good company, the storage cycle is real, and its long-term valuation has room for repair. But a good company and the current price making a quick profit are two different things.