交易禅师

Is this a national opportunity or a bubble? Yangxin has become the A-share king today, with a market value of 328 billion, surpassing the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. This situation makes one wonder if the rise of domestic storage is a true national opportunity or just a bubble. Yangxin's growth rate is astonishing. The storage company, which was still losing 16.3 billion yuan before its listing, now has a market value that exceeds that of the world's largest bank. It opened with a 471% increase and closed with a 465% rise, with a turnover of 141.1 billion yuan, making it the first A-share stock to break the 100 billion yuan mark in a single day, with a turnover rate of 66%. These are all records in the history of A-shares, with a market value of 328 billion yuan, surpassing the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Kweichow Moutai, and Ningde Times, and topping the A-share list. Those who are optimistic say that this is a national opportunity, that domestic storage has broken through the blockade, and that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have given up the mid-end DRAM market, allowing Yangxin to take fourth place globally, with a net profit increase of 22 times in the first half of 2026. The vast universe of domestic substitution, with 300 billion yuan as just the starting point, makes people feel that the future of domestic storage is bright. However, on the other hand, those who are pessimistic say that this is a typical cyclical stock valuation trap, that DRAM is a strongly cyclical industry, and that Yangxin lost 16.3 billion yuan in 2023, the trough of the cycle, and only barely turned a profit in 2025. Now, using the peak profit of the cycle to calculate the PE, it naturally appears cheap. Overseas, Samsung and SK Hynix have forward PEs of only 6 to 8 times, and their stock prices are still low, so why should Yangxin be worth tens of times more? Both sides are right, which is the most divisive aspect. Yangxin is a good company, and the strategic value of domestic storage is undeniable, and this direction is absolutely right in the 10-year dimension. But in today's stock price, the fundamentals only account for a small part, and most of it is the liquidity premium caused by the first-day circulating market value of only 6.73%, with 93% of the shares locked up, and a little capital can push the price to the sky. So don't take today's 328 billion yuan as Yangxin's true value. If you want to hold onto domestic storage in the long term, this is a good track, but don't get on at the highest emotional point. If you want to speculate, the 66% turnover rate on the first day has already told you that most of the people who entered the market today are here to take the wheel. A good company with the wrong price can still make you lose money, a phrase I've said many times before, and I'll say it again today.