百里 🦅

A company that was founded only ten years ago became the number one company in terms of market value on the A-share market on the first day it went public. Changxin Technology achieved revenue of 50.8 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 719.13%. The overall net profit was 33.012 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.762 billion yuan. According to a rough calculation of the overall net profit, it is equivalent to an average daily profit of about 367 million yuan in the first quarter. "Daily profit of nearly 400 million yuan" is not an exaggeration. But rather than discussing how much money you can earn from one lottery, I am more concerned about: Why did Changxin’s performance suddenly explode? Can this kind of profit be sustained? How far is the gap between its industrial value and stock price? One of the important sources of Changxin's early technology accumulation was the German storage company Qimonda, which went bankrupt in 2009. Through relevant cooperation, Changxin has obtained more than 10 million DRAM technical documents and approximately 2.8TB of technical data, providing an important foundation for initial research and development. Some people therefore question whether this is truly independent research and development. The real difficulty is never to obtain a piece of technical information, but to understand the technology thoroughly, build a factory, improve yield, control costs, pass customer verification, and then continue to iterate the next generation of products. Buying the bricks from the ruins does not mean that the building will be built on its own. What is really worthy of attention about Changxin is that it has turned a batch of dormant technological assets into an industrial system capable of large-scale mass production, revenue generation and continuous research and development. This is also the biggest difference between it and many companies that only talk about the concept of "domestic substitution". Zhu Yiming and Hefei provide two assets that are easily underestimated. The first item is governance structure and talent binding. Zhu Yiming promised to gradually allocate the approximately 768 million shares he holds to the company's employees for incentives within ten calendar years after listing; at the same time, the shares he holds will not be transferred in the first ten years after listing, and will also be subject to strict reduction restrictions in the second ten years. The second asset is the industrial environment and patient capital provided by Hefei. Before the listing of Changxin, Hefei State-owned Assets System held a total of approximately 36.79% of the shares; after the issuance dilution, the shareholding ratio was approximately 33.1%. Calculated based on the market price on the first day of listing, the book value of its holdings has exceeded one trillion yuan. What Hefei provided to Changxin was not just money, but a set of soil that could sustain growth. For manufacturing, factories never exist in isolation. Supplier response speed, engineer density, talent flow, logistics costs and policy stability will gradually become part of an enterprise's competitiveness. Changxin deserves long-term attention, but that doesn’t mean it’s worth buying at any price. From an industrial perspective, the listing of Changxin Technology is undoubtedly a landmark event. It proves that Chinese companies have truly entered the global DRAM competition landscape, and also proves that long-term capital, engineer bonuses and industrial clusters can build a project with a low probability of success step by step. But from an investment perspective, it is still necessary to separate the industrial significance from the stock price. I think Changxin’s current investment value mainly comes from four directions: First, China is an important DRAM consumer market in the world, and there is still a lot of room for domestic substitution. Second, Changxin’s market share is only about 7.67%. If technology and production capacity continue to improve, there is still a lot of room for growth in theory. Third, AI servers, data centers and smart terminals are increasing the storage demand of a single device, and the long-term demand for DRAM is expected to rise. Fourth, the company has passed the most difficult stage of large-scale mass production, and the release of production capacity in the future may continue to bring about cost reduction and profit flexibility. But the risks are also very clear: DRAM prices may fall, and industry supply and demand may reverse; there are still external uncertainties in advanced equipment, materials, and supply chains; production expansion means continued and high capital expenditures; and the current market value has already factored in quite high growth expectations in advance. Finally, let me talk about my personal opinion: Changxin is a company with strategic value, industrial scarcity and long-term growth space, but it is not currently a simple question that can be answered by just looking at the price-to-earnings ratio. Investing in it is essentially betting on three things at the same time: the storage demand brought about by AI is not a short-term pulse; Changxin can continue to narrow the technology gap with global leaders; the company can maintain profitability and R&D investment in the next storage down cycle. As long as one of the conditions is not fulfilled, the current valuation may face repricing. Ten years ago, there were almost no Chinese companies on the global DRAM table. Today, Changxin has truly sat at the poker table. This is a victory for industry. But for investors, in the end, we still need to remember the old saying: a good company does not necessarily equal a good price, and long-termism also requires a reasonable buying cost.