Recently, the price of STRC has plummeted, and many people have begun to question whether Strategy's model is viable. Some even believe that STRC's risks outweigh its benefits, but I don't share this view.
As someone who has been following Strategy for a long time, I think STRC is a necessary step in Strategy's expansion. Many people think that STRC has lost its financing possibilities and is no longer meaningful, but I disagree.
However, the answer to this question is not simple. We need to understand the context in which STRC was created and its design intentions. STRC was designed to bring in more conservative funds and turn Strategy into a structured financial product set based on BTC.
With the addition of STRC, Strategy's flywheel has become a two-legged walk: relying on both ordinary stock ATM issuance and STRC issuance. On the premise of ensuring sufficient cash reserves to cover dividends and overall debt safety, Strategy aims to accumulate more BTC.
However, the recent price drop of STRC has led many people to worry about the viability of Strategy's model. I think this is not a problem with STRC itself, but rather a mistake in Strategy's narrative management and market communication.
The price drop of STRC is fair, and it's a matter of trust and confidence. The price of STRC is a real-time pricing of Strategy's risks and confidence. If the risks increase, the price of STRC will drop, but this does not mean that STRC itself has failed.
Don't think it's all over just because mNAV is less than 1! Although theoretically, mNAV approaching 1 or even less than 1 means that the ordinary stock ATM financing window is closed, this is not necessarily structurally irreversible.
Is it right to dilute MSTR ordinary shareholders to finance through ATM? In other words, saving STRC = saving MSTR, but saving STRC requires hurting MSTR - is it worth it? Of course, it is.
What needs to be reflected on is Strategy's mistakes in narrative management and market communication, rather than the product itself. At the same time, we need to reflect on the inertia of Saylor, who only knows how to keep buying coins. Sometimes, it's wise to slow down, hibernate, and nurture our reserves and confidence, waiting for the right moment to change.